Here is a few of the teaser legs I will be taking this week. I did pretty well with my teasers last week so I will continue to do them.
Baltimore Ravens +5 teaser (-1 traditional)
The Ravens are road favorites to the Bengals on the Thursday night game. The public has been high on the Bengals This offseason thinking this is the year they put it together. With John Ross and Joe Mixon being healthy and the players they have on their defense, there are people who believe the Bengals will be back to a playoff team. Since Marvin Lewis was hired the Bengals have a pretty good seasons here and there, where they end up losing in the first round of the playoffs. People are thinking this could be one of those years for the Bengals. I do not believe it will be one of those years. I see them struggling and having a mediocre season, where Marvin Lewis may finally end up getting fired. The Bengals looked ok in week 1 against the Colts. The Colts were on their way to scoring the game winning TD when they fumbled and the Bengals defense took the ball the other way for a TD. That was the only time in the game the Bengals held a significant lead. The Ravens defense is much more talented than the Colts defense. Also the Ravens should be able to move the ball against the Bengals through the air like the Colts did. Another thing with Thursday night games is they usually come down to the team that is better prepared. I expect the Ravens to be much better prepared than the Bengals. If they somehow do not win outright, they won’t lose by more than a last second field goal. Teams I think will win outright are always great teaser legs and this one is on exception.
Cleveland Browns +15 (+9)
I understand the logic going that goes against this pick. On one hand we have the Cleveland Browns who have not won a game 18 straight contests. They have been the mark of futility in the NFL since coming back in 1999. They are traveling to New Orleans to play the Saints who traditionally are one of the more high scoring teams and play very well at home. I understand all the logic would say to take the Saints that even the Saints -3 would be a safer pick. I disagree because I believe Cleveland will keep it closer than that if not win outright. The Saints defense looked terrible last week against the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Buccaneers. I do not believe they will be able to get it together in one week. Cleveland ran the ball pretty well last week, and their defensive line were able to pressure Ben Roethlisberger into throwing 3 INTs to go along with 2 lost fumbles. I see the Browns controlling the line of scrimmage in this game against the Saints. I really like the Browns in all betting forms this week. Right now taking them as a teaser gives you +15. I really think this is the game where the Browns shock people and finally win. I can not see them losing especially not by more than one score. This is a line I can see moving downwards closer to game time.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-3)
This is a game where if the Bucs lost last week they would probable see themselves as double digit underdogs once again and then maybe there would have been some value to take them. Since they won and did so convincingly that value is all gone. They come into this week hosting an Eagles team that did not look impressive in their first game. The game was played in muggy conditions and was low scoring and the Eagles got the win. This kind of game plays into what the Eagles like to do to teams. The Eagles have an effective running game behind their very talented offensive line. The Eagles are also very deep talent-wise at defensive line. These combined factors allow them to control the line of scrimmage and time of possession. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a lot of time to sit back in the pocket and let deep passes develop against the Saints. He will not have that kind of time with Chris Long, Michael Bennett and company coming for him. This line is a reflection of the public being higher on the Bucs than they should after one week. It is what the public does. No chance the Eagles lose this game. Taking them getting points as a teaser leg is basically stealing.
Carolina Panthers +12 (+6)
I don’t want to overreact to week 1 stats. I know I just wrote something about the public being dumb for doing the same thing. Theres one thing I could not believe when I saw it though. After week 1 the Falcons offense is ranked 29th in total efficiency and their passing offense is ranked 31. I know they did not look good on opening night but these numbers were astounding to me. I feel like they paint the picture to truly show just how bad this offense has gotten ever since Kyle Shanahan left. Matt Ryan looked average to below average last week. He was inaccurate on a lot of passes and there were a lot that could have been intercepted that weren’t. I don’t think this offense will improve against the Panthers defense who were able to shut the Cowboys out for most of last week’s game. The offensive line has been hyped up as the strength of the Cowboys offense but the Panthers were able to keep pressure on Dak Prescott and sacked him 6 times. The Panthers offense isn’t always sexy. They run the ball well keep the clock moving and take care of the football. They have big play potential but for the most part they play to control the clock. I see this game being similar to last weeks Panthers Cowboys game. A slow paced low scoring game where the Panthers will wear down their opponent this week their opponent being the Atlanta Falcons. The line is so high on the Falcons because they are still a public team. Their high scoring offense put them in the Super Bowl so that is what people want to remember them by. The problem is they are not the same team. Kyle Shanahan and the offensive schemes he brought with him are gone and the Falcons are no longer the same. The Panthers are not a very popular team and so they are not heavily bet on. The Panthers also have the chance that they must prepare for a hurricane this week. These combined factors with the Panthers losing the last 3 games in Atlanta both outright and against the spread have the Panthers as 6 point underdogs. I think they break that losing streak this week and not only cover the spread but win outright. Put them in a teaser leg as well.
Denver Broncos +0.5 (-5.5)
The Raiders find themselves close to a full TD underdogs once again after a bad showing on Monday night against the Rams. They started the game very well and appeared to be very motivated. Unfortunately that is where the coaching seems to end for Jon Gruden. They were worn down throughout the game and they were unable to match the same intensity they had to start the game. I can see this happening again this week but maybe on an even larger scale. I was heavily on the Broncos last week because of the altitude in Denver. This is a huge home field advantage this early in the season when players are not yet fully in shape. Is there a chance that Gruden is able to motivate his team to be intense for a full game? Maybe so but in that case they will only end up losing by less than one score rather than more. The Broncos should have no issues winnig this game which makes them a terrific teaser leg.
New York Giants +9 (+3)
This line makes no sense to me. I think Vegas is not sure what either of these teams are and they are letting the public figure it out. The Cowboys are getting the standard 3 points for home field advantage. They are playing a division rival in their home opener so they should be motivated. They are a very popular team that for some reason always has high expectations. They came out flat in week 1 in a loss to the Panthers. Their offensive line had issues with Dak Prescott being sacked 6 times. I think people are also overreacting to the Giants poor showing in week 1. This game was played against a very good Jaguars defense though. The Cowboys do not have nearly the same talent defensively that the Jaguars have. The Giants should have more chances to make plays on offense as Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley both looked good in week 1. The Jaguars are a much more talented team in general than the Cowboys this year and if they cannot beat the Giants by more than 5 the Cowboys certainly will not be able to either. Even at home if the Cowboys win it will probably be by 3 or less. Anything can happen in a division game but the Giants seem to be far and away the more talented team this year. I’ll take the points with the Giants as a teaser leg.
Detroit Lions +12 (+6)
People will probable think this pick is absurd after the Lions just got blown out on Monday night. One thing I have learned throughout years of watching and betting on the NFL is no team ever looks as good or as bad as they did the week before. The media and the public are already bashing Matt Patricia saying he has lost the locker room and needs to be fired. They are saying that he is just like almost every other coach off the Belichick coaching tree and they cannot do well once they leave New England. I’m not listening to any of this. The Jets have been week 1 champs many times before. The extra time to prepare gives them an advantage but the only problem is they only have that extra time to prepare for one game. If Matt Patricia is a true disciple of Bill Belichick he will only be focusing on winning the next game. The Lions have a good opportunity traveling to San Francisco to play a 49ers team that did not look like anything special against the Vikings. People have high expectations for Jimmy Garoppolo after his hot start to end last year. The 49ers are also a very popular team and are playing their home opener. These combined factors to go along with the Lions getting blown out on Monday night has them listed as 6 point underdogs. The NFL betting market is just like any other type of market. You want to buy low and sell high. What I mean by that is when a team like Detroit gets blown out on Monday night in week 1 and the media is talking about changing coaches after one week. Everybody is in panic mode, pets heads are falling off, nobody believes in the Lions. This is the time to buy in on them. Sure they looked terrible but as I mentioned no team ever looks as good or as bad the next week. They gave up a few big plays. You can’t count on teams always making big plays against their opponent. This is a game I would not be surprised to see Detroit win outright. The 49ers are really not as good as advertised. The receiving core is overrated with Marquise Goodwin not even catching a pass in week 1. I spoke earlier on people saying Matt Patricia looking like most coaches to leave New England, Jimmy Garoppolo looked like most QBs to leave New England since Tom Brady was drafted as well. I am not sold that the 49ers will be able to move the ball consistently and I do not think their defense is very good either. The Jets defense is very talented and they also scored a special teams TD. All of these instances are not easily replicated week to week. If it is and the Lions lose by more than 12, I will not longer have the same feelings regarding Matt Patricia.
The Gambling Man 